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Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan

● quote 54 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $231.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $628.4KEvent: Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan

Indicative prices · 54 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Adrian Mannarino
4.0¢
Alex Molcan
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets1Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:110 trades$303.8K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 60 min agoofficial metadata 58 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Adrian Mannarino · $302 net·10 wallets·$35.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAdrian Mannarino$111.0K@ 100¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$36
6h
−$79.8K
tracked
$303.8K

10 verified profitable wallets: Adrian Mannarino · $302 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +46.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 54 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 60 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 58 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-01 13:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Adrian Mannarino and Alex Molcan in the Erste Bank Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Mannarino' if Adrian Mannarino advances against Alex Molcan. This market will resolve to 'Alex Molcan' if Alex Molcan advances against Adrian Mannarino. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Adrian Mannarino2h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Alex Molcan@ 54.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -27.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Adrian Mannarino@ 53.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -7.0pp1h CONFIRMED +44.0pp
Latest book event: Alex Molcan DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $121 → $926 · 13s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Adrian Mannarino; negative values favor Alex Molcan. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlex Molcan · $36
6hAlex Molcan · $79.8K
24hAlex Molcan · $85.8K

Adrian Mannarino price VWAP

Volume-weighted Adrian Mannarino price. Alex Molcan fills are converted to the complementary Adrian Mannarino probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h78.09¢▲ above by 21.8pp
VWAP 7d78.09¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Adrian Mannarino price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$146.3K
90¢
$638
85¢
$24.5K
80¢
$3.7K
75¢
$2.2K
70¢
$21.7K
65¢
$21.2K
60¢
$2.1K
55¢
$0
50¢
$4.9K
45¢
$14.2K
40¢
$33.5K
35¢
$24.8K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$4.0K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAdrian Mannarino$111.0K@ 99.9¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLAdrian Mannarino$22.4K@ 99.9¢0xc1a9…e2db🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAdrian Mannarino$20.0K@ 89.0¢0xc1a9…e2db🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAlex Molcan$11.0K@ 54.14¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAdrian Mannarino$13.0K@ 41.0¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAdrian Mannarino$10.0K@ 41.0¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAdrian Mannarino$14.0K@ 36.56¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 2 Winner: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan
—$152priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mannarino vs. Molcan: Match O/U 23.5
—$22priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mannarino vs. Molcan: Match O/U 21.5
—$18priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Adrian Mannarino (-1.5) vs Alex Molcan (+1.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Adrian Mannarino vs. Alex Molcan: Total Sets O/U 2.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mannarino vs. Molcan: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mannarino vs. Molcan: Match O/U 22.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mannarino vs. Molcan: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstAdrian Mannarino$42.6K
BUY VWAP 38.98¢·4 fills
UpTheBluesAdrian Mannarino$22.4K
BUY VWAP 64.09¢·15 fills
LuzzzerAlex Molcan$20.4K
BUY VWAP 41.07¢·2 fills
0xc1a9…e2dbAdrian Mannarino$20.0K
BUY VWAP 89.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.