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Guayaquil: Tomas Barrios vs Juan Estevez

● quote 671 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $119Event: Guayaquil: Tomas Barrios vs Juan Estevez

Indicative prices · 671 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

83.0¢
Tomas Barrios
17.0¢
Juan Estevez
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution56Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%
24h sample:1 trades$2 trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1070 min agoofficial metadata 19 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$2

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 2%.
  • •Executable quote is 671 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1070 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-02 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Barrios and Juan Estevez in the Guayaquil, originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Barrios' if Tomas Barrios advances against Juan Estevez. This market will resolve to 'Juan Estevez' if Juan Estevez advances against Tomas Barrios. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tomas Barrios; negative values favor Juan Estevez. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTomas Barrios · $0
6hTomas Barrios · $0
24hJuan Estevez · $2

Tomas Barrios price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tomas Barrios price. Juan Estevez fills are converted to the complementary Tomas Barrios probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current83.0¢
VWAP 24h82.0¢▲ above by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d83.13¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tomas Barrios price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$5
80¢
← now
$15
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Barrios vs. Estevez: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Tomas Barrios vs Juan Estevez
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Barrios vs. Estevez: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
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Barrios vs. Estevez: Match O/U 22.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Tomas Barrios (-5.5) vs Juan Estevez (+5.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Barrios vs. Estevez: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Barrios vs. Estevez: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Barrios vs. Estevez: Match O/U 21.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.