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Erste Bank Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Brandon Nakashima

● quote 44s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 8 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $9.0KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Brandon Nakashima

Indicative prices · 44s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

33.5¢
YES
66.5¢
Brandon Nakashima
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:1 trades$1.5K trackedsource coverage 17%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 78 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBrandon Nakashima$1.5K@ 67¢·k56

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$1.5K
tracked
$1.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: Brandon Nakashima · $1.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 78 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-03 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tallon Griekspoor and Brandon Nakashima in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tallon Griekspoor' if Tallon Griekspoor advances against Brandon Nakashima. This market will resolve to 'Brandon Nakashima' if Brandon Nakashima advances against Tallon Griekspoor. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor Brandon Nakashima. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hBrandon Nakashima · $1.5K
24hBrandon Nakashima · $1.5K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. Brandon Nakashima fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current33.5¢
VWAP 24h33.03¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d33.03¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$1.5K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Griekspoor vs. Nakashima: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
—$1.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Griekspoor vs. Nakashima: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Tallon Griekspoor vs Brandon Nakashima
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tallon Griekspoor vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 2.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Griekspoor vs. Nakashima: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Griekspoor vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 23.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Brandon Nakashima (-3.5) vs Tallon Griekspoor (+3.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Tallon Griekspoor vs Brandon Nakashima
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.