PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Erste Bank Open: Cameron Norrie vs Francisco Cerundolo

● quote 15s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $207.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $202.0KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Cameron Norrie vs Francisco Cerundolo

Indicative prices · 15s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.95¢
Cameron Norrie
0.05¢
Francisco Cerundolo
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets74Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:84 trades$85.3K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Cameron Norrie · $11.1K net·12 wallets·$15.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFrancisco Cerundolo$10.0K@ 67¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Cameron Norrie pressure: $12.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$12.4K
6h
+$1.2K
tracked
$85.3K

12 verified profitable wallets: Cameron Norrie · $11.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -65.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Cameron Norrie or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-03 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Cameron Norrie and Francisco Cerundolo in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Cameron Norrie' if Cameron Norrie advances against Francisco Cerundolo. This market will resolve to 'Francisco Cerundolo' if Francisco Cerundolo advances against Cameron Norrie. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x1fd1…af022 linked markets · $2 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Francisco Cerundolo@ 66.0¢56m ago
15m INVALIDATED -26.0pp
Latest book event: Francisco Cerundolo DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $3.5K → $1.3K · 29s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Cameron Norrie; negative values favor Francisco Cerundolo. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCameron Norrie · $12.4K
6hCameron Norrie · $1.2K
24hCameron Norrie · $1.2K

Cameron Norrie price VWAP

Volume-weighted Cameron Norrie price. Francisco Cerundolo fills are converted to the complementary Cameron Norrie probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.95¢
VWAP 24h51.65¢▲ above by 48.3pp
VWAP 7d51.65¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Cameron Norrie price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$6.8K
90¢
$49
85¢
$40
80¢
$2.0K
75¢
$10.4K
70¢
$5.1K
65¢
$1.7K
60¢
$6.4K
55¢
$6.0K
50¢
$1.4K
45¢
$0
40¢
$1.5K
35¢
$9.3K
30¢
$28.8K
25¢
$6.0K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFrancisco Cerundolo$10.0K@ 67.0¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Norrie vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 21.5
43.0¢$1.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Francisco Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Cameron Norrie (+1.5)
0.5¢$750priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Norrie vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 22.5
9.5¢$139priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cameron Norrie vs. Francisco Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 2.5
10.5¢$71priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Cameron Norrie vs Francisco Cerundolo
94.0¢$65priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Norrie vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 23.5
51.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Norrie vs. Cerundolo: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Norrie vs. Cerundolo: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kkookkooFrancisco Cerundolo$22.8K
BUY VWAP 69.20¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.