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Erste Bank Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev

● quote 9 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 8 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $33.6KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev

Indicative prices · 9 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

23.0¢
Daniel Merida Aguilar
77.0¢
Daniil Medvedev
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution56Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%
24h sample:6 trades$6.2K trackedsource coverage 19%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 435 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDaniil Medvedev$1.7K@ 78¢·prabam

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$6.2K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 9 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 435 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-03 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Daniil Medvedev in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Daniil Medvedev. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daniel Merida Aguilar; negative values favor Daniil Medvedev. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDaniel Merida Aguilar · $0
6hDaniel Merida Aguilar · $0
24hDaniil Medvedev · $6.2K

Daniel Merida Aguilar price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daniel Merida Aguilar price. Daniil Medvedev fills are converted to the complementary Daniel Merida Aguilar probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current23.0¢
VWAP 24h22.01¢▲ above by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d22.01¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daniel Merida Aguilar price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
← now
$6.2K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Aguilar vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Aguilar vs. Medvedev: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Daniil Medvedev (-1.5) vs Daniel Merida Aguilar (+1.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Daniel Merida Aguilar vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Aguilar vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Aguilar vs. Medvedev: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.