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Erste Bank Open: Jurij Rodionov vs Nikoloz Basilashvili

● quote 624 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 8 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $5.8KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Jurij Rodionov vs Nikoloz Basilashvili

Indicative prices · 624 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

44.5¢
Jurij Rodionov
55.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%
24h sample:1 trades$1.4K trackedsource coverage 25%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1160 min agoofficial metadata 177 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJurij Rodionov$1.4K@ 45¢·0000.

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$1.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 624 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1160 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 177 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-03 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jurij Rodionov and Nikoloz Basilashvili in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jurij Rodionov' if Jurij Rodionov advances against Nikoloz Basilashvili. This market will resolve to 'Nikoloz Basilashvili' if Nikoloz Basilashvili advances against Jurij Rodionov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jurij Rodionov; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJurij Rodionov · $0
6hJurij Rodionov · $0
24hJurij Rodionov · $1.4K

Jurij Rodionov price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jurij Rodionov price. NO fills are converted to the complementary Jurij Rodionov probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current44.5¢
VWAP 24h44.76¢▼ below by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d44.76¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jurij Rodionov price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$1.4K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Jurij Rodionov vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$25priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Jurij Rodionov (-1.5) vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (+1.5)
—$12priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rodionov vs. Basilashvili: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rodionov vs. Basilashvili: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Jurij Rodionov vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rodionov vs. Basilashvili: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rodionov vs. Basilashvili: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rodionov vs. Basilashvili: Match O/U 21.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.