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Swiss Indoors Basel: Holger Rune vs Quentin Halys

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 8 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $16.5KEvent: Swiss Indoors Basel: Holger Rune vs Quentin Halys

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

50.5¢
Holger Rune
49.5¢
Quentin Halys
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection78Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:19 trades$22.4K trackedsource coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 16 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYQuentin Halys$9.0K@ 51¢·Luzzzer

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Quentin Halys pressure: $17.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$17.5K
6h
−$14.8K
tracked
$22.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: Quentin Halys · $1.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 16 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Quentin Halys or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-03 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Holger Rune and Quentin Halys in the Swiss Indoors Basel, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Holger Rune' if Holger Rune advances against Quentin Halys. This market will resolve to 'Quentin Halys' if Quentin Halys advances against Holger Rune. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Holger Rune; negative values favor Quentin Halys. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hQuentin Halys · $17.5K
6hQuentin Halys · $14.8K
24hQuentin Halys · $14.8K

Holger Rune price VWAP

Volume-weighted Holger Rune price. Quentin Halys fills are converted to the complementary Holger Rune probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h49.73¢▲ above by 0.8pp
VWAP 7d49.73¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Holger Rune price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$4.9K
45¢
$17.5K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 1 Winner: Holger Rune vs Quentin Halys
51.0¢$214priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Holger Rune vs. Quentin Halys: Total Sets O/U 2.5
40.5¢$106priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Holger Rune (-0.5) vs Quentin Halys (+0.5)
47.5¢$11priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rune vs. Halys: Match O/U 23.5
50.5¢$9priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Holger Rune (-1.5) vs Quentin Halys (+1.5)
31.0¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rune vs. Halys: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
48.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rune vs. Halys: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
44.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rune vs. Halys: Match O/U 21.5
74.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

LuzzzerQuentin Halys$17.5K
BUY VWAP 50.56¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.