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Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Nemiga (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $3.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $172.3KEvent: Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

41.5¢
Aurora Gaming
58.5¢
Nemiga
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets58Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution54Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority50Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:33 trades$64.7K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aurora Gaming · $17 net·2 wallets·$20 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNemiga$14.5K@ 58¢·Mooseborzoiii

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Nemiga pressure: $4.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.4K
6h
−$22.1K
tracked
$64.7K

2 verified profitable wallets: Aurora Gaming · $17 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 74% · priority 50

Since latest large flow: +2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Nemiga or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming wins 2 or more maps than Nemiga in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Nemiga".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 3 match between Nemiga and Aurora Gaming in the PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming wins 2 or more maps than Nemiga in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Nemiga". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 9, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining maps required to decide the match, including a map in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Mooseborzoiii2 linked markets · $141.2K gross
lllllllIlll2 linked markets · $25.1K gross
aaaa2983 linked markets · $7.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Nemiga@ 58.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED -3.0pp
Latest book event: Nemiga UP 20.5pp · near-book depth $387 → $1.2K · 110s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aurora Gaming; negative values favor Nemiga. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNemiga · $4.4K
6hNemiga · $22.1K
24hNemiga · $22.6K

Aurora Gaming price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aurora Gaming price. Nemiga fills are converted to the complementary Aurora Gaming probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current41.5¢
VWAP 24h42.62¢▼ below by 1.1pp
VWAP 7d42.62¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aurora Gaming price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$81
40¢
← now
$64.5K
35¢
$10
30¢
$0
25¢
$136
20¢
$0
15¢
$8
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNemiga$14.5K@ 58.0¢
Mooseborzoiii0x57a8…ebc2
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNemiga$11.4K@ 57.0¢
Mooseborzoiii0x57a8…ebc2
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAurora Gaming$13.1K@ 43.99¢
HBAFlover980xac47…d234
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
32.5¢$777.6Kpriority54Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner
47.5¢$162.4Kpriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner
31.5¢$22.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
48.5¢$4.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Nemiga (+3.5)
50.0¢$618priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Nemiga (+3.5)
47.0¢$250priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
48.0¢$10priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nemiga (-9.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+9.5)
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

MooseborzoiiiNemiga$35.1K
BUY VWAP 57.57¢·4 fills
HBAFlover98Aurora Gaming$13.1K
BUY VWAP 43.99¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.