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Queretaro: Polona Hercog vs Martina Capurro

● quote 90 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $49.8KEvent: Queretaro: Polona Hercog vs Martina Capurro

Indicative prices · 90 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Polona Hercog
4.0¢
Martina Capurro
—
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 64%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:23 trades$28.4K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 57%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 129 min agoofficial metadata 94 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Polona Hercog · $2.2K net·4 wallets·$2.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPolona Hercog$12.1K@ 74¢·HVAB

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$957
tracked
$28.4K

4 verified profitable wallets: Polona Hercog · $2.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 64% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 90 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 129 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-02 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Polona Hercog and Martina Capurro in the Queretaro, originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Polona Hercog' if Polona Hercog advances against Martina Capurro. This market will resolve to 'Martina Capurro' if Martina Capurro advances against Polona Hercog. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Polona Hercog UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $89.7K → $40.8K · 64s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Polona Hercog; negative values favor Martina Capurro. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPolona Hercog · $0
6hPolona Hercog · $957
24hPolona Hercog · $968

Polona Hercog price VWAP

Volume-weighted Polona Hercog price. Martina Capurro fills are converted to the complementary Polona Hercog probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h76.35¢▲ above by 23.6pp
VWAP 7d76.35¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Polona Hercog price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$1.6K
80¢
$289
75¢
$13.7K
70¢
$12.1K
65¢
$0
60¢
$564
55¢
$127
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPolona Hercog$12.1K@ 74.0¢
HVAB0x8546…35b8
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Polona Hercog (-1.5) vs Martina Capurro (+1.5)
—$11priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hercog vs. Capurro: Match O/U 23.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hercog vs. Capurro: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Polona Hercog vs. Martina Capurro: Total Sets O/U 2.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Polona Hercog vs Martina Capurro
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hercog vs. Capurro: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hercog vs. Capurro: Match O/U 21.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hercog vs. Capurro: Match O/U 22.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

HVABPolona Hercog$12.1K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.