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Erste Bank Open: Arthur Fery vs Jacob Fearnley

● quote 908 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $263.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $170.6KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Arthur Fery vs Jacob Fearnley

Indicative prices · 908 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Arthur Fery
0.1¢
Jacob Fearnley
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:43 trades$63.7K trackedsource coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 915 min agoofficial metadata 906 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Arthur Fery · $25.9K net·4 wallets·$25.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArthur Fery$7.5K@ 44¢·0x076d…8d4c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$63.7K

4 verified profitable wallets: Arthur Fery · $25.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 908 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 915 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 906 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-02 16:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fery and Jacob Fearnley in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fery' if Arthur Fery advances against Jacob Fearnley. This market will resolve to 'Jacob Fearnley' if Jacob Fearnley advances against Arthur Fery. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Jacob Fearnley DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $36.0K → $5 · 24s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arthur Fery; negative values favor Jacob Fearnley. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArthur Fery · $0
6hArthur Fery · $0
24hArthur Fery · $24.4K

Arthur Fery price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arthur Fery price. Jacob Fearnley fills are converted to the complementary Arthur Fery probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h57.59¢▲ above by 42.3pp
VWAP 7d57.59¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arthur Fery price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$6.1K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$4.0K
75¢
$0
70¢
$5.2K
65¢
$5.0K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$3.8K
45¢
$31.4K
40¢
$8.2K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Fery vs. Fearnley: Match O/U 21.5
—$517priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Jacob Fearnley (-1.5) vs Arthur Fery (+1.5)
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Fery vs. Fearnley: Match O/U 23.5
—$111priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Arthur Fery vs. Jacob Fearnley: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$21priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Arthur Fery (-0.5) vs Jacob Fearnley (+0.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fery vs. Fearnley: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fery vs. Fearnley: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Arthur Fery (-1.5) vs Jacob Fearnley (+1.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x076d…8d4cArthur Fery$21.2K
BUY VWAP 45.87¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.