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Chiefs vs. Falcons

● quote 12s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 10 hoursLiquidity: $812.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $75.7KEvent: Chiefs vs. Falcons

Indicative prices · 12s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

61.5¢
Chiefs
38.5¢
Falcons
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority60Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:22 trades$32.2K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 19s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Chiefs · $4.7K net·2 wallets·$4.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFalcons$19.3K@ 38¢·alwaysfade

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Chiefs SETUP
What the tape says

Chiefs pressure: $1.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.9K
6h
−$19.4K
tracked
$32.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: Chiefs · $4.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 60

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 10h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Chiefs or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-15 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Chiefs" if Chiefs win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Falcons" if Falcons win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Chiefs and Falcons, scheduled for November 15 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chiefs" if Chiefs win the game. This market will resolve to "Falcons" if Falcons win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Chiefs; negative values favor Falcons. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hChiefs · $1.9K
6hFalcons · $19.4K
24hFalcons · $16.6K

Chiefs price VWAP

Volume-weighted Chiefs price. Falcons fills are converted to the complementary Chiefs probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current61.5¢
VWAP 24h62.09¢▼ below by 0.6pp
VWAP 7d62.69¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Chiefs price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
← now
$55.4K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFalcons$19.3K@ 38.0¢
alwaysfade0xe5b7…5ee3
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYChiefs$10.0K@ 64.0¢
TB140xae2b…90ea
🐋—4 days ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)
45.5¢$33.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Chiefs vs. Falcons: O/U 48.5
46.5¢$20.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Chiefs vs. Falcons: O/U 46.5
—$6.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Falcons (-14.5)
6.5¢$6.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Chiefs (-20.5)
—$676priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)
—$10priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Chiefs (-8.5)
—$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Chiefs (-5.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

alwaysfadeFalcons$24.4K
BUY VWAP 38.0¢·2 fills
TB14Chiefs$10.0K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.