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Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?

● quote 5 min ago
Crypto→Token LaunchCloses: 4 daysLiquidity: $10.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $154.5KEvent: Will Predict.fun launch a token by ___?

Indicative prices · 5 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.7¢
YES
99.3¢
NO
0.4¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution77Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:31 trades$38.5K trackedsource coverage 25%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 28 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $15.8K net·2 wallets·$15.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$6.0K@ 100¢·0x220d…7018

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: $6.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$6.0K
6h
−$3.4K
tracked
$38.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: NO · $15.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.4¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 28 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-16 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x349e…4b5f2 linked markets · $9.4K gross
0xb465…0d8d2 linked markets · $2.8K gross
0x6c65…3e452 linked markets · $1.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $6.0K
6hNO · $3.4K
24hNO · $18.6K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.7¢
VWAP 24h2.16¢▼ below by 1.5pp
VWAP 7d4.83¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$1.0K
20¢
$4.6K
15¢
$1.3K
10¢
$1.2K
5¢
$4.5K
0¢
← now
$31.7K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

scoutNo$12.6K
BUY VWAP 99.34¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.