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Michigan State vs. Michigan

● quote 938 min ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $6.9KEvent: Michigan State vs. Michigan

Indicative prices · 938 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

15.5¢
Michigan State
84.5¢
Michigan
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection99Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2 trades$2.9K trackedsource coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 45 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMichigan$2.9K@ 84¢·HomeRunHazard

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Michigan pressure: $2.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.9K
6h
−$2.9K
tracked
$2.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: Michigan · $2.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 938 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 45 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Michigan or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-08 00:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Michigan State" if Michigan State win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Michigan" if Michigan win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between Michigan State and Michigan, scheduled for November 7 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Michigan State" if Michigan State win the game. This market will resolve to "Michigan" if Michigan win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mooseborzoi3 linked markets · $15.9K gross
HomeRunHazard3 linked markets · $6.4K gross
0xb4f9…c9a72 linked markets · $4.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Michigan State; negative values favor Michigan. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMichigan · $2.9K
6hMichigan · $2.9K
24hMichigan · $2.9K

Michigan State price VWAP

Volume-weighted Michigan State price. Michigan fills are converted to the complementary Michigan State probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current15.5¢
VWAP 24h15.99¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d15.99¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Michigan State price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
← now
$2.9K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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Spread: Michigan State (-0.5)
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Michigan State vs. Michigan: O/U 71.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Michigan State vs. Michigan: O/U 73.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Michigan State (-20.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.