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Spread: Army (-6.5)

● quote 789 min ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: 31 minutesLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $7.3KEvent: Air Force vs. Army

Indicative prices · 789 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

41.5¢
Army
58.5¢
Air Force
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution49Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 64%
24h sample:1 trades$4.2K trackedsource coverage 57%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 96 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAir Force$4.2K@ 58¢·mooseborzoi

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$4.2K
tracked
$4.2K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 64% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 789 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 96 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-08 00:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Army" if Army win the game by 7 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Air Force".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for November 7 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Army" if Army win the game by 7 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Air Force". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $18.3K gross
mooseborzoi5 linked markets · $16.7K gross
quavoo2 linked markets · $5.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Army; negative values favor Air Force. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArmy · $0
6hAir Force · $4.2K
24hAir Force · $4.2K

Army price VWAP

Volume-weighted Army price. Air Force fills are converted to the complementary Army probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current41.5¢
VWAP 24h42.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d42.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Army price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$4.2K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Air Force vs. Army: O/U 43.5
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Spread: Army (-17.5)
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Air Force vs. Army
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Air Force vs. Army: O/U 47.5
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Spread: Air Force (-7.5)
17.5¢$26priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Army (-2.5)
58.5¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Air Force (-2.5)
33.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.