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Swiss Indoors Basel: Nuno Borges vs Casper Ruud

● quote 453 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $684.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $314.5KEvent: Swiss Indoors Basel: Nuno Borges vs Casper Ruud

Indicative prices · 453 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Nuno Borges
5.0¢
Casper Ruud
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets36Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:114 trades$120.4K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 462 min agoofficial metadata 457 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Casper Ruud · $4.0K net·9 wallets·$11.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNuno Borges$13.2K@ 100¢·thetesterguy

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$120.4K

9 verified profitable wallets: Casper Ruud · $4.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 453 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 462 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 457 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-04 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Nuno Borges and Casper Ruud in the Swiss Indoors Basel, originally scheduled for October 28, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nuno Borges' if Nuno Borges advances against Casper Ruud. This market will resolve to 'Casper Ruud' if Casper Ruud advances against Nuno Borges. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
neutralwave232 linked markets · $560 gross
0xe121…84da2 linked markets · $15 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Casper Ruud DOWN 12.0pp · near-book depth $43.7K → $11.7K · 26s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Nuno Borges; negative values favor Casper Ruud. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNuno Borges · $0
6hNuno Borges · $0
24hNuno Borges · $13.3K

Nuno Borges price VWAP

Volume-weighted Nuno Borges price. Casper Ruud fills are converted to the complementary Nuno Borges probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h77.52¢▲ above by 22.4pp
VWAP 7d77.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Nuno Borges price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$48.8K
90¢
$32.3K
85¢
$2.0K
80¢
$5.7K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$134
50¢
$3
45¢
$98
40¢
$1.3K
35¢
$12.7K
30¢
$7.0K
25¢
$1.9K
20¢
$123
15¢
$3.4K
10¢
$5.1K
5¢
$46
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNuno Borges$13.2K@ 99.9¢
thetesterguy0xad49…c53e
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYNuno Borges$12.0K@ 91.0¢
thetesterguy0xad49…c53e
🐋—about 8 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesNuno Borges$14.6K
BUY VWAP 67.51¢·7 fills
thetesterguyNuno Borges$12.0K
BUY VWAP 91.0¢·1 fill
Paul973973Nuno Borges$11.0K
BUY VWAP 95.48¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.