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Spread: Giants (-2.5)

● quote 37s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: 1 dayLiquidity: $448.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $72.8KEvent: Commanders vs. Giants

Indicative prices · 37s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

48.5¢
Giants
51.5¢
Commanders
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:15 trades$30.4K trackedsource coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 39 min agoofficial metadata 10 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYGiants$9.3K@ 51¢·Pwaddler

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Commanders pressure: $1.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.9K
6h
−$3.5K
tracked
$30.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: Commanders · $1.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 39 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Commanders or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-13 01:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Giants" if the Giants win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Commanders".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Commanders and Giants, scheduled for November 12 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Giants" if the Giants win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Commanders". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $6.3K gross
0F622 linked markets · $5.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Giants@ 51.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Giants; negative values favor Commanders. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCommanders · $1.9K
6hCommanders · $3.5K
24hGiants · $6.9K

Giants price VWAP

Volume-weighted Giants price. Commanders fills are converted to the complementary Giants probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.5¢
VWAP 24h50.82¢▼ below by 2.3pp
VWAP 7d50.65¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Giants price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$28.5K
45¢
← now
$5.1K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Commanders vs. Giants
44.5¢$38.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 42.5
—$10.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Commanders (-16.5)
6.5¢$7.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Commanders (-14.5)
—$1.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Giants (-3.5)
—$1.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Commanders (-17.5)
—$943priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Giants (-1.5)
—$584priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Commanders (-6.5)
—$420priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

PwaddlerGiants$18.6K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.