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Set Handicap: Maria Timofeeva (-1.5) vs Xinran Sun (+1.5)

Sports→TennisSettlement: Xinran SunLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $16.4KEvent: Guangzhou Open: Maria Timofeeva vs Xinran Sun
0.0¢
Maria Timofeeva payout
100.0¢
Xinran Sun payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:8 trades$8.3K trackedsource coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 153 min agoofficial metadata 15 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYXinran Sun$5.7K@ 59¢·traba

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Xinran Sun. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-05 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Maria Timofeeva" if Maria Timofeeva wins by 2 or more sets than Xinran Sun, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Xinran Sun."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Maria Timofeeva can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Xinran Sun."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Maria Timofeeva and Xinran Sun in the Guangzhou Open, originally scheduled for October 28, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Maria Timofeeva" if Maria Timofeeva wins by 2 or more sets than Xinran Sun, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Xinran Sun." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Maria Timofeeva can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Xinran Sun." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA results.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 2h ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 2h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
traba2 linked markets · $22.9K gross
wingwingwin2 linked markets · $19.6K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $19.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Xinran Sun UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $23 → $152 · 12s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Maria Timofeeva; negative values favor Xinran Sun. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMaria Timofeeva · $0
6hXinran Sun · $5.9K
24hXinran Sun · $8.3K

Maria Timofeeva price VWAP

Volume-weighted Maria Timofeeva price. Xinran Sun fills are converted to the complementary Maria Timofeeva probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h41.35¢▼ below by 41.3pp
VWAP 7d41.35¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Maria Timofeeva price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$8.1K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$112
15¢
$0
10¢
$3
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.