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Brest: Francesco Maestrelli vs Gabriel Diallo

● quote 419 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $150.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $255.1KEvent: Brest: Francesco Maestrelli vs Gabriel Diallo

Indicative prices · 419 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Francesco Maestrelli
0.1¢
Gabriel Diallo
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets90Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:34 trades$125.0K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 456 min agoofficial metadata 418 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Francesco Maestrelli · $7.4K net·4 wallets·$8.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFrancesco Maestrelli$53.3K@ 70¢·tenniz

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$125.0K

4 verified profitable wallets: Francesco Maestrelli · $7.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 419 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 456 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 418 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-04 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Francesco Maestrelli and Gabriel Diallo in the Brest, originally scheduled for October 28, 2026 at 3:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Maestrelli' if Francesco Maestrelli advances against Gabriel Diallo. This market will resolve to 'Gabriel Diallo' if Gabriel Diallo advances against Francesco Maestrelli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Francesco Maestrelli; negative values favor Gabriel Diallo. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFrancesco Maestrelli · $0
6hFrancesco Maestrelli · $0
24hFrancesco Maestrelli · $123.2K

Francesco Maestrelli price VWAP

Volume-weighted Francesco Maestrelli price. Gabriel Diallo fills are converted to the complementary Francesco Maestrelli probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h68.25¢▲ above by 31.6pp
VWAP 7d68.25¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Francesco Maestrelli price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$7.9K
75¢
$2.7K
70¢
$53.3K
65¢
$52.3K
60¢
$8.1K
55¢
$20
50¢
$108
45¢
$199
40¢
$0
35¢
$403
30¢
$0
25¢
$10
20¢
$20
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFrancesco Maestrelli$53.3K@ 70.26¢
tenniz0xeae1…a67b
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYFrancesco Maestrelli$52.1K@ 65.02¢
tenniz0xeae1…a67b
🐋—about 8 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Maestrelli vs. Diallo: Match O/U 22.5
—$25priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Maestrelli vs. Diallo: Match O/U 21.5
—$3priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Maestrelli vs. Diallo: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Francesco Maestrelli vs Gabriel Diallo
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Maestrelli vs. Diallo: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Maestrelli vs. Diallo: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Francesco Maestrelli vs. Gabriel Diallo: Total Sets O/U 2.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Gabriel Diallo (-3.5) vs Francesco Maestrelli (+3.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

tennizFrancesco Maestrelli$105.4K
BUY VWAP 67.57¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.