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Erste Bank Open: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino

Sports→TennisSettlement: Adrian MannarinoLiquidity: $846.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $669.6KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino
0.0¢
Jakub Mensik payout
100.0¢
Adrian Mannarino payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:151 trades$251.2K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 54 min agoofficial metadata 46 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Adrian Mannarino · $64.3K net·14 wallets(2🐋)·$93.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJakub Mensik$25.0K@ 53¢·kkookkoo

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Adrian Mannarino. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-04 15:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jakub Mensik and Adrian Mannarino in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 28, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jakub Mensik' if Jakub Mensik advances against Adrian Mannarino. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Mannarino' if Adrian Mannarino advances against Jakub Mensik. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 47m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 47m ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
whosay2 linked markets · $1.8K gross
neutralwave233 linked markets · $1.2K gross
DCAAA2 linked markets · $22 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Adrian Mannarino1h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Adrian Mannarino@ 65.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Adrian Mannarino2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Jakub Mensik2h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Adrian Mannarino UP 6.5pp · near-book depth $606 → $22.5K · 3s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jakub Mensik; negative values favor Adrian Mannarino. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAdrian Mannarino · $52.8K
6hAdrian Mannarino · $31.1K
24hAdrian Mannarino · $22.1K

Jakub Mensik price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jakub Mensik price. Adrian Mannarino fills are converted to the complementary Jakub Mensik probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h38.5¢▼ below by 38.5pp
VWAP 7d38.51¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jakub Mensik price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$6.0K
85¢
$1.8K
80¢
$12.3K
75¢
$51
70¢
$0
65¢
$2.0K
60¢
$1.0K
55¢
$1.1K
50¢
$70.3K
45¢
$26.8K
40¢
$22.4K
35¢
$19.8K
30¢
$23.1K
25¢
$455
20¢
$254
15¢
$10.3K
10¢
$3.6K
5¢
$4.9K
0¢
← now
$45.0K

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAdrian Mannarino$13.6K@ 99.9¢
jtwyslljy0x9cb9…32f2
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAdrian Mannarino$18.4K@ 64.51¢
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase0x5bfe…3258
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYJakub Mensik$25.0K@ 53.42¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAdrian Mannarino$13.6K@ 48.6¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Jakub Mensik vs. Adrian Mannarino: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$228priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mensik vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 22.5
—$91priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mensik vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 21.5
—$48priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mensik vs. Mannarino: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mensik vs. Mannarino: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mensik vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mensik vs. Mannarino: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Swiss Indoors Basel: Novak Djokovic vs Ugo Humbert
—$1.0Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x076d…8d4cAdrian Mannarino$40.1K
BUY VWAP 49.77¢·9 fills
kkookkooJakub Mensik$30.0K
BUY VWAP 53.51¢·2 fills
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjaseAdrian Mannarino$26.2K
BUY VWAP 65.44¢·2 fills
jtwyslljyAdrian Mannarino$14.5K
BUY VWAP 86.95¢·6 fills
UpTheBluesAdrian Mannarino$14.2K
BUY VWAP 59.43¢·11 fills
ferrariChampions2026Jakub Mensik$12.2K
BUY VWAP 64.00¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.