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Spread: Hawks (-2.5)

● quote 44s ago
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $178.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $97.6KEvent: Heat vs. Hawks

Indicative prices · 44s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

48.5¢
Hawks
51.5¢
Heat
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets3Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:21 trades$41.8K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 14 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Hawks · $940 net·6 wallets(2🐋)·$36.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHawks$11.9K@ 48¢·0xb4f9…c9a7

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$57
6h
+$17.3K
tracked
$41.8K

6 verified profitable wallets: Hawks · $940 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 14 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-28 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Hawks" if the Hawks win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Heat". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Heat".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 28 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Hawks" if the Hawks win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Heat". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Heat". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ArielFilipino2 linked markets · $46.7K gross
0xb4f9…c9a72 linked markets · $30.4K gross
quavoo4 linked markets · $19.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Hawks@ 49.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Heat@ 53.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Hawks; negative values favor Heat. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHawks · $57
6hHawks · $17.3K
24hHeat · $4.1K

Hawks price VWAP

Volume-weighted Hawks price. Heat fills are converted to the complementary Hawks probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.5¢
VWAP 24h48.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d48.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Hawks price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$4.2K
45¢
← now
$37.7K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYHawks$11.9K@ 48.0¢0xb4f9…c9a7🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYHeat$11.4K@ 52.36¢
ArielFilipino0xe18e…f826
🐋—about 7 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Heat vs. Hawks
44.5¢$489.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Hawks (-3.5)
45.5¢$128.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Hawks (-1.5)
52.5¢$33.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5
53.5¢$31.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Hawks (-4.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Heat (-6.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Hawks (-31.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ArielFilipinoHeat$17.6K
BUY VWAP 52.58¢·2 fills
0xb4f9…c9a7Hawks$17.3K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.