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Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: 3 minutesLiquidity: $321.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $427.7KEvent: Nuggets vs. Pelicans

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

48.5¢
Nuggets
51.5¢
Pelicans
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection95Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:19 trades$213.2K tracked16% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 17 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Pelicans · $5.0K net·2 wallets·$5.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPelicans$113.5K@ 52¢·googleplay

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Pelicans pressure: $201.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$201.5K
6h
−$209.0K
tracked
$213.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: Pelicans · $5.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 17 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Pelicans or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-29 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Nuggets" if the Nuggets win the game by 5 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Pelicans". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pelicans".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 28 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Nuggets" if the Nuggets win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Pelicans". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pelicans". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
googleplay2 linked markets · $345.0K gross
Herdonia4 linked markets · $6.2K gross
HomeRunHazard5 linked markets · $5.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Pelicans@ 52.0¢16m ago
Outcome checks pending

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Nuggets; negative values favor Pelicans. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPelicans · $201.5K
6hPelicans · $209.0K
24hPelicans · $212.7K

Nuggets price VWAP

Volume-weighted Nuggets price. Pelicans fills are converted to the complementary Nuggets probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.5¢
VWAP 24h48.17¢▲ above by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d48.17¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Nuggets price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$4.1K
45¢
← now
$209.1K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPelicans$113.5K@ 52.0¢
googleplay0xe9b7…ce7b
🐋—18 minutes ago
BUYPelicans$41.0K@ 52.0¢
googleplay0xe9b7…ce7b
🐋—19 minutes ago
BUYPelicans$45.5K@ 51.63¢
googleplay0xe9b7…ce7b
🐋—19 minutes ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Nuggets vs. Pelicans
60.5¢$862.3Kpriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5
52.5¢$84.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)
44.5¢$34.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)
52.5¢$8.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)
55.5¢$7.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5
57.0¢$5.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)
41.5¢$4.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Pelicans (-11.5)
13.0¢$2.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

googleplayPelicans$200.0K
BUY VWAP 51.92¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.