Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)

Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 15 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $5.1KEvent: Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage

Polymarket indicative prices · 11 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

40.5¢
Spirit
59.5¢
Natus Vincere
—
Spread
anomaly0direction0wallets0execution0priority0data 53%
24h sample:4 trades$520 trackedsource coverage 10%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 121 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$412
tracked
$520

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 121 minutes old.
  • •Less than 15h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-28 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit wins 2 or more maps than Natus Vincere in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Natus Vincere".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 5 match between Spirit and Natus Vincere in the PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 28, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit wins 2 or more maps than Natus Vincere in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Natus Vincere". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 11, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 28, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining maps required to decide the match, including a map in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x9332…a3db3 linked markets · $30 gross
0x7ca6…9da82 linked markets · $15 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Lifecycleresolving

Signed Order Flow

1hSpirit · $0
6hNatus Vincere · $412
24hNatus Vincere · $520

Spirit price VWAP

Current40.5¢
VWAP 24h41.55¢▼ below by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d41.55¢
Largest observed holders

Largest holders

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Spirit price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$520
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
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Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5)
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Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5)
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Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
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Games Total: O/U 2.5
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Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
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Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.