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Swiss Indoors Basel: Daniel Altmaier vs Jiri Lehecka

● quote 26 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $78Official 24h Vol: $183.4KEvent: Swiss Indoors Basel: Daniel Altmaier vs Jiri Lehecka

Indicative prices · 26 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

2.75¢
Daniel Altmaier
97.25¢
Jiri Lehecka
5.5¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection46Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution32Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 64%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:45 trades$105.4K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 57%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 32 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Jiri Lehecka · $32.9K net·6 wallets(1🐋)·$32.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJiri Lehecka$39.0K@ 97¢·999585

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Jiri Lehecka pressure: $48.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$48.0K
6h
−$95.3K
tracked
$105.4K

6 verified profitable wallets: Jiri Lehecka · $32.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
5.5¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 64% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 26 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 32 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 5.5¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Jiri Lehecka or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-05 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Altmaier and Jiri Lehecka in the Swiss Indoors Basel, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Altmaier' if Daniel Altmaier advances against Jiri Lehecka. This market will resolve to 'Jiri Lehecka' if Jiri Lehecka advances against Daniel Altmaier. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Jiri Lehecka UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $78.7K → $8.7K · 31s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daniel Altmaier; negative values favor Jiri Lehecka. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJiri Lehecka · $48.0K
6hJiri Lehecka · $95.3K
24hJiri Lehecka · $99.3K

Daniel Altmaier price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daniel Altmaier price. Jiri Lehecka fills are converted to the complementary Daniel Altmaier probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.75¢
VWAP 24h7.43¢▼ below by 4.7pp
VWAP 7d7.43¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daniel Altmaier price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$260
20¢
$0
15¢
$21.6K
10¢
$4.5K
5¢
$31.0K
0¢
← now
$48.0K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJiri Lehecka$39.0K@ 97.42¢
9995850x88a6…7e77
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYJiri Lehecka$10.3K@ 84.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Jiri Lehecka (-1.5) vs Daniel Altmaier (+1.5)
—$1.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Altmaier vs. Lehecka: Match O/U 23.5
—$203priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Jiri Lehecka (-4.5) vs Daniel Altmaier (+4.5)
—$152priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Altmaier vs. Lehecka: Match O/U 22.5
—$56priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Altmaier vs. Lehecka: Match O/U 21.5
—$54priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Altmaier vs. Lehecka: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Altmaier vs. Lehecka: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Daniel Altmaier vs Jiri Lehecka
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

999585Jiri Lehecka$41.7K
BUY VWAP 97.12¢·2 fills
UpTheBluesJiri Lehecka$14.7K
BUY VWAP 94.40¢·6 fills
ferrariChampions2026Jiri Lehecka$14.4K
BUY VWAP 84.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.