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Sioux Falls: Mees Rottgering vs Aidan Mayo

● quote 913 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $385.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $129.2KEvent: Sioux Falls: Mees Rottgering vs Aidan Mayo

Indicative prices · 913 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.1¢
Mees Rottgering
99.9¢
Aidan Mayo
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets35Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 64%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:40 trades$73.9K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 57%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 946 min agoofficial metadata 915 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aidan Mayo · $4.6K net·2 wallets·$8.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAidan Mayo$35.6K@ 99¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$73.9K

2 verified profitable wallets: Aidan Mayo · $4.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 64% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 913 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 946 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 915 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mees Rottgering and Aidan Mayo in the Sioux Falls, originally scheduled for October 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mees Rottgering' if Mees Rottgering advances against Aidan Mayo. This market will resolve to 'Aidan Mayo' if Aidan Mayo advances against Mees Rottgering. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Aidan Mayo16h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Aidan Mayo@ 72.0¢16h ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Mees Rottgering DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $5 → $226 · 76s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mees Rottgering; negative values favor Aidan Mayo. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMees Rottgering · $0
6hMees Rottgering · $0
24hMees Rottgering · $5.4K

Mees Rottgering price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mees Rottgering price. Aidan Mayo fills are converted to the complementary Mees Rottgering probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h11.56¢▼ below by 11.5pp
VWAP 7d11.57¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mees Rottgering price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$12
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$474
30¢
$94
25¢
$25.1K
20¢
$379
15¢
$0
10¢
$1.8K
5¢
$5.9K
0¢
← now
$40.1K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAidan Mayo$35.6K@ 99.0¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 16 hours ago
BUYAidan Mayo$20.3K@ 70.68¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 17 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Rottgering vs. Mayo: Match O/U 22.5
—$48priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rottgering vs. Mayo: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rottgering vs. Mayo: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Mees Rottgering vs Aidan Mayo
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rottgering vs. Mayo: Match O/U 21.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mees Rottgering vs. Aidan Mayo: Total Sets O/U 2.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rottgering vs. Mayo: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Mees Rottgering (-2.5) vs Aidan Mayo (+2.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kkookkooAidan Mayo$20.3K
BUY VWAP 70.68¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.