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Game Spread: Daniil Medvedev (-4.5) vs Adrian Mannarino (+4.5)

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $2.6KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Daniil Medvedev

Indicative prices · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

—
Daniil Medvedev
—
Adrian Mannarino
—
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:18 trades$839 trackedsource coverage 33%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 175 min agoofficial metadata 138 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Daniil Medvedev · $104 net·4 wallets·$104 gross

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$793
tracked
$839

4 verified profitable wallets: Daniil Medvedev · $104 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Indicative price is unavailable.
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 175 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-06 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Daniil Medvedev" if Daniil Medvedev wins 4.5 or more total games than Adrian Mannarino in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 30, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Adrian Mannarino".

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Daniil Medvedev could no longer have finished 4.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Adrian Mannarino".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Daniil Medvedev" if Daniil Medvedev wins 4.5 or more total games than Adrian Mannarino in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 30, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Adrian Mannarino". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Daniil Medvedev could no longer have finished 4.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Adrian Mannarino". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x1e3b…e2322 linked markets · $142 gross
0x7be1…200e2 linked markets · $57 gross
neutralwave232 linked markets · $19 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daniil Medvedev; negative values favor Adrian Mannarino. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDaniil Medvedev · $0
6hDaniil Medvedev · $793
24hDaniil Medvedev · $747

Daniil Medvedev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daniil Medvedev price. Adrian Mannarino fills are converted to the complementary Daniil Medvedev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current—
VWAP 24h47.63¢
VWAP 7d47.63¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daniil Medvedev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$9
80¢
$8
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$1
55¢
$0
50¢
$375
45¢
$0
40¢
$446
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.