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Set Handicap: Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Tommy Paul (+1.5)

Sports→TennisSettlement: Carlos AlcarazLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $12.5KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz
100.0¢
Carlos Alcaraz payout
0.0¢
Tommy Paul payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:16 trades$3.6K trackedsource coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 84 min agoofficial metadata 28 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLCarlos Alcaraz$2.3K@ 100¢·0x3ec3…e330

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Carlos Alcaraz. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-06 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Carlos Alcaraz" if Carlos Alcaraz wins by 2 or more sets than Tommy Paul, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Tommy Paul."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Carlos Alcaraz can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Tommy Paul."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 30, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Carlos Alcaraz" if Carlos Alcaraz wins by 2 or more sets than Tommy Paul, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Tommy Paul." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Carlos Alcaraz can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Tommy Paul." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 43m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 43m ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
neutralwave233 linked markets · $939 gross
0x24ce…da462 linked markets · $4 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Carlos Alcaraz; negative values favor Tommy Paul. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTommy Paul · $2.3K
6hTommy Paul · $1.6K
24hTommy Paul · $1.6K

Carlos Alcaraz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Carlos Alcaraz price. Tommy Paul fills are converted to the complementary Carlos Alcaraz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h82.18¢▲ above by 17.8pp
VWAP 7d82.18¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Carlos Alcaraz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$2.3K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$2
55¢
$0
50¢
$1.3K
45¢
$19
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.