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Will Spain win on 2026-11-12?

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→SoccerCloses: 2 daysLiquidity: $129.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $12.8KEvent: Czechia vs. Spain

Indicative prices · 1 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

81.5¢
YES
18.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%
24h sample:9 trades$20 trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 305 min agoofficial metadata 29 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$10.0K@ 82¢·dv-pm

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$6
tracked
$20

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •Observed tape is 305 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-12 19:45 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/
Outcome meaning

•If Spain wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Czechia and Spain, originally scheduled for Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): If Spain wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The following abandonment rules apply only when this market's outcome was not already definitively determined under its rules before abandonment. If the game is abandoned, this market will resolve according to the official ruling of the governing body or event organizers on the abandoned game. If a result is awarded by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that determines this market's outcome, this market will resolve based on the awarded result, regardless of the score as played. If no such result is awarded and the result as played at the time of abandonment is declared to stand by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the game as played. If the game is replayed or resumed from the point of abandonment and has an official result by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the completed result. In any other case, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor names, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences in a team's or player's name will not affect resolution, provided the intended team or player can be clearly and uniquely identified as a participant in the listed fixture or competition. If a listed name has no reasonable connection to any participant, or could reasonably refer to more than one participant such that the intended team or player cannot be determined, this market will resolve as it would if the listed fixture had been canceled entirely; a listed participant who cannot be identified does not count as inactive or absent. The primary resolution source for this market will be official match information from UEFA Nations League (https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/). If the governing body or event organizers have not published final statistics within 2 hours of the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve to "No".

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 83.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp24h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $6
24hYES · $20

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current81.5¢
VWAP 24h82.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d81.96¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
← now
$38.3K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

dv-pmYes$26.6K
BUY VWAP 82.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.