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Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Matteo Arnaldi

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $250.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $307.5KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Matteo Arnaldi

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

87.5¢
Cameron Norrie
12.5¢
Matteo Arnaldi
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets2Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority46Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:90 trades$106.3K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Cameron Norrie · $140 net·4 wallets·$8.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCameron Norrie$14.4K@ 54¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Cameron Norrie pressure: $12.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$12.0K
6h
+$13.1K
tracked
$106.3K

4 verified profitable wallets: Cameron Norrie · $140 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 46

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Cameron Norrie or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-09 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Cameron Norrie and Matteo Arnaldi in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Cameron Norrie' if Cameron Norrie advances against Matteo Arnaldi. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Cameron Norrie. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Matteo Arnaldi DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $150 → $300 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Cameron Norrie; negative values favor Matteo Arnaldi. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCameron Norrie · $12.0K
6hCameron Norrie · $13.1K
24hCameron Norrie · $13.2K

Cameron Norrie price VWAP

Volume-weighted Cameron Norrie price. Matteo Arnaldi fills are converted to the complementary Cameron Norrie probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current87.5¢
VWAP 24h61.67¢▲ above by 25.8pp
VWAP 7d61.67¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Cameron Norrie price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
← now
$1.2K
80¢
$5.3K
75¢
$10.2K
70¢
$1.5K
65¢
$17.4K
60¢
$26.8K
55¢
$7.6K
50¢
$32.1K
45¢
$4.3K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCameron Norrie$14.4K@ 54.0¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—17 minutes ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Cameron Norrie (-1.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+1.5)
0.05¢$1.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Cameron Norrie (-1.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+1.5)
6.0¢$380priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Cameron Norrie vs Matteo Arnaldi
0.05¢$267priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Norrie vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 22.5
99.95¢$74priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Norrie vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 23.5
98.3¢$41priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cameron Norrie vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 2.5
99.95¢$40priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Norrie vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 21.5
99.55¢$14priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Norrie vs. Arnaldi: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.05¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesCameron Norrie$27.8K
BUY VWAP 62.28¢·13 fills
robustmstCameron Norrie$14.4K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.