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Set 1 Winner: Lorenzo Musetti vs Hubert Hurkacz

● quote 168 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $179Event: Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Hubert Hurkacz

Indicative prices · 168 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

50.0¢
Lorenzo Musetti
50.0¢
Hubert Hurkacz
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection94Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution56Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:5 trades$71 trackedsource coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 25 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Hubert Hurkacz · $47 net·3 wallets·$47 gross

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$66
6h
−$66
tracked
$71

3 verified profitable wallets: Hubert Hurkacz · $47 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 168 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 25 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-09 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Lorenzo Musetti” if Lorenzo Musetti wins the first set. It will resolve to “Hubert Hurkacz” if Hubert Hurkacz wins the first set.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Musetti and Hubert Hurkacz in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Lorenzo Musetti” if Lorenzo Musetti wins the first set. It will resolve to “Hubert Hurkacz” if Hubert Hurkacz wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Absing3 linked markets · $41 gross
Donkoo3 linked markets · $41 gross
MaxFomo3 linked markets · $41 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lorenzo Musetti; negative values favor Hubert Hurkacz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHubert Hurkacz · $66
6hHubert Hurkacz · $66
24hHubert Hurkacz · $66

Lorenzo Musetti price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lorenzo Musetti price. Hubert Hurkacz fills are converted to the complementary Lorenzo Musetti probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.0¢
VWAP 24h44.21¢▲ above by 5.8pp
VWAP 7d44.21¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lorenzo Musetti price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$2
45¢
$0
40¢
$69
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Hubert Hurkacz
49.5¢$156.7Kpriority85Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Hubert Hurkacz: Total Sets O/U 2.5
45.0¢$2.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Hubert Hurkacz (-0.5) vs Lorenzo Musetti (+0.5)
53.5¢$116priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Lorenzo Musetti vs Hubert Hurkacz
50.5¢$75priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Hubert Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Lorenzo Musetti (+1.5)
18.0¢$33priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Musetti vs. Hurkacz: Match O/U 23.5
71.0¢$30priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Musetti vs. Hurkacz: Match O/U 22.5
47.5¢$22priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Musetti vs. Hurkacz: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.