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Set Handicap: Mary Stoiana (-1.5) vs Venus Williams (+1.5)

● quote 59 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: —Event: Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Venus Williams vs Mary Stoiana

Indicative prices · 59 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

68.0¢
YES
32.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution56Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 25%

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$0

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 25% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 0 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •BUY/SELL is known for 0% of tracked volume.
  • •Executable quote is 59 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape freshness is unavailable.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-09 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Mary Stoiana" if Mary Stoiana wins by 2 or more sets than Venus Williams, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Venus Williams."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Mary Stoiana can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Venus Williams."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mary Stoiana and Venus Williams in the Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open, originally scheduled for November 1, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Mary Stoiana" if Mary Stoiana wins by 2 or more sets than Venus Williams, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Venus Williams." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Mary Stoiana can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Venus Williams." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA results.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hYES · $0
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Venus Williams vs Mary Stoiana
14.5¢$29.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Venus Williams vs. Mary Stoiana: Total Sets O/U 2.5
26.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Williams vs. Stoiana: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
56.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Mary Stoiana (-5.5) vs Venus Williams (+5.5)
56.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Venus Williams vs Mary Stoiana
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Williams vs. Stoiana: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Venus Williams vs Mary Stoiana
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Williams vs. Stoiana: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.