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Taipei: Daniel Michalski vs August Holmgren

● quote 72 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $39.9KEvent: Taipei: Daniel Michalski vs August Holmgren

Indicative prices · 72 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

2.0¢
Daniel Michalski
99.9¢
August Holmgren
—
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets84Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:30 trades$5.3K trackedsource coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 104 min agoofficial metadata 80 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:August Holmgren · $65 net·3 wallets·$77 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDaniel Michalski$3.3K@ 23¢·0xc8ad…83dc

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$4.5K
tracked
$5.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: August Holmgren · $65 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 72 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 104 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-09 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Michalski and August Holmgren in the Taipei, originally scheduled for November 1, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Michalski' if Daniel Michalski advances against August Holmgren. This market will resolve to 'August Holmgren' if August Holmgren advances against Daniel Michalski. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: August Holmgren UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $29.2K → $46.1K · 18s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daniel Michalski; negative values favor August Holmgren. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDaniel Michalski · $0
6hDaniel Michalski · $4.5K
24hDaniel Michalski · $4.5K

Daniel Michalski price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daniel Michalski price. August Holmgren fills are converted to the complementary Daniel Michalski probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.0¢
VWAP 24h24.48¢▼ below by 22.5pp
VWAP 7d24.48¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daniel Michalski price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$170
30¢
$1.0K
25¢
$13
20¢
$3.7K
15¢
$210
10¢
$0
5¢
$148
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Game Spread: August Holmgren (-3.5) vs Daniel Michalski (+3.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: August Holmgren (-1.5) vs Daniel Michalski (+1.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Michalski vs. Holmgren: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Michalski vs. Holmgren: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Michalski vs. Holmgren: Match O/U 23.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Michalski vs. Holmgren: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Daniel Michalski vs August Holmgren
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Daniel Michalski vs. August Holmgren: Total Sets O/U 2.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.