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Spread: Celtics (-7.5)

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: 1 minuteLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $104.8KEvent: Celtics vs. Magic

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

48.5¢
Celtics
51.5¢
Magic
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection67Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets51Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority70Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 93%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:13 trades$73.4K tracked23% 🐋source coverage 70%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Magic · $45.7K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$59.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMagic$27.3K@ 51¢·BreakTheBank

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Magic SETUP
What the tape says

Magic pressure: $48.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$48.8K
6h
−$38.9K
tracked
$73.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: Magic · $45.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 93% · priority 70

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Magic or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-01 20:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Celtics" if the Celtics win the game by 8 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Magic". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Magic".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for November 1 at 3:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Celtics" if the Celtics win the game by 8 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Magic". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Magic". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20265 linked markets · $74.5K gross
HomeRunHazard9 linked markets · $61.2K gross
BreakTheBank2 linked markets · $54.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Magic@ 51.0¢14m ago
Outcome checks pending

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Celtics; negative values favor Magic. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMagic · $48.8K
6hMagic · $38.9K
24hMagic · $38.9K

Celtics price VWAP

Volume-weighted Celtics price. Magic fills are converted to the complementary Celtics probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.5¢
VWAP 24h50.16¢▼ below by 1.7pp
VWAP 7d50.16¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Celtics price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$46.1K
45¢
← now
$27.3K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMagic$27.3K@ 51.0¢
BreakTheBank0xf031…c80c
🐋—5 minutes ago
BUYMagic$21.3K@ 50.0¢
BreakTheBank0xf031…c80c
🐋—18 minutes ago
BUYCeltics$10.4K@ 52.0¢0xe567…4fcb🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Celtics vs. Magic
70.5¢$246.4Kpriority63Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 222.5
50.5¢$124.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 221.5
52.5¢$69.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)
52.5¢$41.1Kpriority76Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
44.5¢$31.8Kpriority92Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 220.5
54.5¢$26.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Celtics (-4.5)
60.5¢$20.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Celtics (-9.5)
41.5¢$16.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BreakTheBankMagic$48.6K
BUY VWAP 50.56¢·2 fills
0xe567…4fcbCeltics$10.4K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.