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Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Dota 2Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $48.6KEvent: Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe Playoffs

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.05¢
Team Yandex
99.95¢
Team Spirit
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection21Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution69Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:17 trades$25.9K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 53%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 13 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Team Spirit · $12.3K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$12.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Spirit$12.1K@ 53¢·0x076d…8d4c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Team Yandex pressure: $5.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$5.5K
6h
−$4.4K
tracked
$25.9K

2 verified profitable wallets: Team Spirit · $12.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Team Yandex or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-01 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Team Yandex" if Team Yandex wins 2 or more games than Team Spirit in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Team Spirit".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Grand Final match between Team Yandex and Team Spirit in the PARI Universe Playoffs, initially scheduled for November 1, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Yandex" if Team Yandex wins 2 or more games than Team Spirit in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Team Spirit". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of November 1, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining games required to decide the match, including a game in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
GameGambleStakes2 linked markets · $55.7K gross
madar782 linked markets · $47.3K gross
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $38.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Team Spirit UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $1.3K → $2.2K · 46s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Team Yandex; negative values favor Team Spirit. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTeam Yandex · $5.5K
6hTeam Spirit · $4.4K
24hTeam Spirit · $4.5K

Team Yandex price VWAP

Volume-weighted Team Yandex price. Team Spirit fills are converted to the complementary Team Yandex probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.05¢
VWAP 24h36.5¢▼ below by 36.4pp
VWAP 7d36.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Team Yandex price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$20.4K
40¢
$45
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$5.5K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTeam Spirit$12.1K@ 53.38¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner
3.0¢$1.5Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe Playoffs
20.0¢$379.3Kpriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 3.5
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Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner
55.0¢$2.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Handicap: TY (-2.5) vs Team Spirit (+2.5)
0.05¢$2.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Handicap: TS (-2.5) vs Team Yandex (+2.5)
42.5¢$1.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 4.5
30.0¢$1.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winner
56.5¢$19priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x076d…8d4cTeam Spirit$12.3K
BUY VWAP 53.38¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.