UFC 334: Stephen Thompson vs. Charles Radtke (Welterweight, Prelims)

● quote 32 min ago

Sports→Combat SportsCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $648.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $413.1KEvent: UFC 334: Stephen Thompson vs. Charles Radtke (Welterweight, Prelims)

Indicative prices · 32 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢

Stephen Thompson

1.0¢

Charles Radtke

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets37Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:155 trades$113.9K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 39 min agoofficial metadata 32 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Stephen Thompson · $4.5K net·14 wallets·$18.6K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCharles Radtke$20.0K@ 46¢·winayouss

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE

What the tape says

Charles Radtke pressure: $8.8K net directional flow in 1h.

−$8.8K

−$6.5K

tracked

$113.9K

14 verified profitable wallets: Stephen Thompson · $4.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +35.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Executable quote is 32 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 39 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 32 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Charles Radtke or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-11-15 04:59 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Stephen Thompson" if Stephen Thompson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Charles Radtke at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, scheduled for November 14, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Charles Radtke" if Charles Radtke is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Stephen Thompson" if Stephen Thompson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Charles Radtke at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, scheduled for November 14, 2026. It will resolve to "Charles Radtke" if Charles Radtke is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

0x1bc3…dc6e2 linked markets · $1.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Charles Radtke@ 65.0¢1h ago

15m UNAVAILABLE

Latest book event: Stephen Thompson UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $3.2K → $2.1K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Stephen Thompson; negative values favor Charles Radtke. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hCharles Radtke · $8.8K

6hCharles Radtke · $6.5K

24hCharles Radtke · $4.3K

Stephen Thompson price VWAP

Volume-weighted Stephen Thompson price. Charles Radtke fills are converted to the complementary Stephen Thompson probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current99.9¢

VWAP 24h61.64¢▲ above by 38.3pp

VWAP 7d61.42¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Stephen Thompson price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

← now

$19.8K

90¢

$463

85¢

$6.0K

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢

$29.2K

50¢

$48.0K

45¢

$3.2K

40¢

$521

35¢

$9.5K

30¢

$10

25¢

$3.1K

20¢

15¢

10¢

5¢

0¢

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

Loading trades…

🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

BUYCharles Radtke$20.0K@ 46.0¢

winayouss0x9dbd…2931

🐋—about 1 hour ago

BUYStephen Thompson$12.5K@ 55.0¢

brokemaxdegen0xd6c9…396d

🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

winayoussCharles Radtke$20.0K

BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill

brokemaxdegenStephen Thompson$12.5K

BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.