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Villa Maria: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Gonzalo Villanueva

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $17.4KEvent: Villa Maria: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Gonzalo Villanueva

Polymarket indicative prices · 1 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

48.0¢
Carlos Maria Zarate
52.0¢
NO
—
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:4 trades$346 trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 836 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$346

1 verified profitable wallet: Carlos Maria Zarate · $182 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 2%.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 836 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-09 13:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Maria Zarate and Gonzalo Villanueva in the Villa Maria, originally scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Maria Zarate' if Carlos Maria Zarate advances against Gonzalo Villanueva. This market will resolve to 'Gonzalo Villanueva' if Gonzalo Villanueva advances against Carlos Maria Zarate. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Carlos Maria Zarate; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCarlos Maria Zarate · $0
6hCarlos Maria Zarate · $0
24hCarlos Maria Zarate · $346

Carlos Maria Zarate price VWAP

Volume-weighted Carlos Maria Zarate price. NO fills are converted to the complementary Carlos Maria Zarate probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.0¢
VWAP 24h40.09¢▲ above by 7.9pp
VWAP 7d40.09¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Carlos Maria Zarate price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$0
40¢
$346
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Carlos Maria Zarate (-1.5) vs Gonzalo Villanueva (+1.5)
50.0¢$1priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Zarate vs. Villanueva: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Zarate vs. Villanueva: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
99.95¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Carlos Maria Zarate (-1.5) vs Gonzalo Villanueva (+1.5)
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Gonzalo Villanueva
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Gonzalo Villanueva
99.95¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Zarate vs. Villanueva: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.05¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Zarate vs. Villanueva: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
0.05¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.