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Set 1 Winner: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: —Event: Bratislava 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Indicative prices · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

—
Shintaro Mochizuki
—
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
—
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:1 trades$3 trackedsource coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 75 min agoofficial metadata 141 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$3
tracked
$3

1 verified profitable wallet: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer · $3 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Indicative price is unavailable.
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-09 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Shintaro Mochizuki” if Shintaro Mochizuki wins the first set. It will resolve to “Nicolai Budkov Kjaer” if Nicolai Budkov Kjaer wins the first set.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Shintaro Mochizuki and Nicolai Budkov Kjaer in the Bratislava 2, originally scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Shintaro Mochizuki” if Shintaro Mochizuki wins the first set. It will resolve to “Nicolai Budkov Kjaer” if Nicolai Budkov Kjaer wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Shintaro Mochizuki; negative values favor Nicolai Budkov Kjaer. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hShintaro Mochizuki · $0
6hNicolai Budkov Kjaer · $3
24hNicolai Budkov Kjaer · $3

Shintaro Mochizuki price VWAP

Volume-weighted Shintaro Mochizuki price. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer fills are converted to the complementary Shintaro Mochizuki probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current—
VWAP 24h41.0¢
VWAP 7d41.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Shintaro Mochizuki price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$3
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Bratislava 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
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Set Handicap: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (-1.5) vs Shintaro Mochizuki (+1.5)
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Mochizuki vs. Kjaer: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
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Mochizuki vs. Kjaer: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
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Mochizuki vs. Kjaer: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mochizuki vs. Kjaer: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mochizuki vs. Kjaer: Match O/U 21.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.