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Guayaquil: Joaquin Aguilar vs Hugo Dellien

● quote 4 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $88.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $185.2KEvent: Guayaquil: Joaquin Aguilar vs Hugo Dellien

Indicative prices · 4 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.05¢
Joaquin Aguilar
99.95¢
Hugo Dellien
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets53Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution97Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:78 trades$41.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 22%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 110 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Hugo Dellien · $1.3K net·7 wallets·$2.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHugo Dellien$24.9K@ 64¢·Emberwick

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$23.9K
tracked
$41.0K

7 verified profitable wallets: Hugo Dellien · $1.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 110 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-08 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Joaquin Aguilar and Hugo Dellien in the Guayaquil, originally scheduled for November 1, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Joaquin Aguilar' if Joaquin Aguilar advances against Hugo Dellien. This market will resolve to 'Hugo Dellien' if Hugo Dellien advances against Joaquin Aguilar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Hugo Dellien@ 64.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h INVALIDATED -11.0pp24h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
Latest book event: Hugo Dellien DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $24.6K → $3.0K · 115s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Joaquin Aguilar; negative values favor Hugo Dellien. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJoaquin Aguilar · $0
6hHugo Dellien · $23.9K
24hHugo Dellien · $25.1K

Joaquin Aguilar price VWAP

Volume-weighted Joaquin Aguilar price. Hugo Dellien fills are converted to the complementary Joaquin Aguilar probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.05¢
VWAP 24h13.11¢▼ below by 13.1pp
VWAP 7d23.33¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Joaquin Aguilar price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$5
45¢
$856
40¢
$5.9K
35¢
$33.2K
30¢
$0
25¢
$2.7K
20¢
$2.2K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$4.6K
0¢
← now
$24.7K

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYHugo Dellien$16.8K@ 95.77¢
tenniz0xeae1…a67b
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYHugo Dellien$24.9K@ 64.0¢
Emberwick0xb368…6121
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

EmberwickHugo Dellien$30.8K
BUY VWAP 64.19¢·2 fills
tennizHugo Dellien$16.8K
BUY VWAP 95.77¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.