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Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)

● quote 40s ago
Sports→HockeyCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $66.2KEvent: Avalanche vs. Blackhawks

Indicative prices · 40s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

45.5¢
Avalanche
54.5¢
Blackhawks
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets5Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:4 trades$31.6K tracked50% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 43 min agoofficial metadata 10 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAvalanche$17.0K@ 45¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$8
6h
+$2.5K
tracked
$31.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: Avalanche · $4.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 43 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-03 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nhl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Avalanche" if the Avalanche win the game by 2 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Blackhawks".

Read full resolution rules

In the NHL game, scheduled for November 2 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Avalanche" if the Avalanche win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Blackhawks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $79.1K gross
taylorsversion2 linked markets · $6.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Avalanche@ 46.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Avalanche; negative values favor Blackhawks. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAvalanche · $8
6hAvalanche · $2.5K
24hAvalanche · $2.5K

Avalanche price VWAP

Volume-weighted Avalanche price. Blackhawks fills are converted to the complementary Avalanche probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current45.5¢
VWAP 24h45.41¢▲ above by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d45.41¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Avalanche price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$31.6K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAvalanche$17.0K@ 45.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYBlackhawks$13.0K@ 54.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Avalanche vs. Blackhawks
66.5¢$111.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Avalanche vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5
46.5¢$25.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Avalanche vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5
57.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Avalanche (-2.5)
32.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Avalanche vs. Blackhawks: O/U 4.5
79.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Avalanche vs. Blackhawks: O/U 7.5
27.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Blackhawks (-1.5)
15.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Avalanche vs. Blackhawks: O/U 8.5
18.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Avalanche$17.0K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Blackhawks$13.0K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.