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Set Handicap: Tomas Machac (-1.5) vs Kyrian Jacquet (+1.5)

● quote 152 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $1.7KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Kyrian Jacquet vs Tomas Machac

Indicative prices · 152 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

78.5¢
YES
21.5¢
NO
9.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution7Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 0%

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$0

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
9.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 0% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 0 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •BUY/SELL is known for 0% of tracked volume.
  • •Executable quote is 152 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-09 14:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Tomas Machac" if Tomas Machac wins by 2 or more sets than Kyrian Jacquet, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Kyrian Jacquet."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Tomas Machac can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Kyrian Jacquet."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Machac and Kyrian Jacquet in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Tomas Machac" if Tomas Machac wins by 2 or more sets than Kyrian Jacquet, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Kyrian Jacquet." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Tomas Machac can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Kyrian Jacquet." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x7e97…35022 linked markets · $13 gross
0x9746…59002 linked markets · $11 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hYES · $0
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Jacquet vs. Machac: Match O/U 23.5
41.5¢$296priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kyrian Jacquet vs. Tomas Machac: Total Sets O/U 2.5
37.0¢$256priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Tomas Machac (-1.5) vs Kyrian Jacquet (+1.5)
61.0¢$221priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Jacquet vs. Machac: Match O/U 22.5
48.5¢$113priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Kyrian Jacquet vs Tomas Machac
—$51priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Jacquet vs. Machac: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Jacquet vs. Machac: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Jacquet vs. Machac: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.