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Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Claire Liu vs Katie Boulter

● quote 23s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $630.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $309.3KEvent: Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Claire Liu vs Katie Boulter

Indicative prices · 23s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.95¢
Claire Liu
0.05¢
Katie Boulter
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection46Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets4Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:93 trades$119.3K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 12 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Katie Boulter · $18 net·7 wallets·$428 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLClaire Liu$51.6K@ 66¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Katie Boulter pressure: $54.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$54.7K
6h
−$38.1K
tracked
$119.3K

7 verified profitable wallets: Katie Boulter · $18 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest position change: -26.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 12 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Katie Boulter or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-11 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Claire Liu and Katie Boulter in the Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open, originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Claire Liu' if Claire Liu advances against Katie Boulter. This market will resolve to 'Katie Boulter' if Katie Boulter advances against Claire Liu. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
muller.2 linked markets · $214 gross
Gasplant2 linked markets · $145 gross
0xdfb0…6b5b3 linked markets · $18 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGESELL Claire Liu@ 73.0¢29m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWSELL Claire Liu@ 75.0¢31m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Claire Liu1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Claire Liu@ 44.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +10.0pp1h CONFIRMED +29.0pp
Latest book event: Claire Liu UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $57.7K → $359 · 24s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Claire Liu; negative values favor Katie Boulter. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKatie Boulter · $54.7K
6hKatie Boulter · $38.1K
24hKatie Boulter · $38.1K

Claire Liu price VWAP

Volume-weighted Claire Liu price. Katie Boulter fills are converted to the complementary Claire Liu probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.95¢
VWAP 24h58.09¢▲ above by 41.9pp
VWAP 7d58.09¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Claire Liu price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$4.7K
90¢
$0
85¢
$2.2K
80¢
$271
75¢
$728
70¢
$8.9K
65¢
$53.1K
60¢
$49
55¢
$1.8K
50¢
$1.4K
45¢
$3.0K
40¢
$22.9K
35¢
$10.0K
30¢
$10.2K
25¢
$49
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLClaire Liu$51.6K@ 66.39¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—35 minutes ago
BUYClaire Liu$10.0K@ 39.29¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYClaire Liu$10.0K@ 34.54¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Liu vs. Boulter: Match O/U 22.5
—$272priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Claire Liu vs. Katie Boulter: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$115priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Liu vs. Boulter: Match O/U 21.5
—$86priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Katie Boulter (-1.5) vs Claire Liu (+1.5)
—$83priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Claire Liu vs Katie Boulter
—$77priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Liu vs. Boulter: Match O/U 23.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Liu vs. Boulter: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Liu vs. Boulter: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstClaire Liu$29.4K
BUY VWAP 37.80¢·3 fills
MastermoneyKatie Boulter$11.5K
BUY VWAP 43.82¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.