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Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Abu Dhabi Championship?

Sports→GolfCloses: 4 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $1.7KEvent: DP World Tour: Abu Dhabi Championship Winner

Polymarket indicative prices · 2 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

1.0¢
YES
99.0¢
NO
—
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%
24h sample:1 trades$30 trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1034 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$30

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 2%.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-09 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.europeantour.com/
Outcome meaning

•If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the Abu Dhabi Championship tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No".

•If an unlisted player wins the Abu Dhabi Championship tournament this market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 Abu Dhabi Championship tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the Abu Dhabi Championship tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No". If an unlisted player wins the Abu Dhabi Championship tournament this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by DP World Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If no winner is announced by November 15, 2026 at 11:59PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the DP World Tour website (https://www.europeantour.com/).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
caspar12483 linked markets · $1.9K gross
melchior12484 linked markets · $1.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hYES · $30

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h5.83¢▼ below by 4.8pp
VWAP 7d5.83¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$30
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.