PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Rafael Jodar

● quote 6 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $398.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $493.4KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Rafael Jodar

Polymarket indicative prices · 6 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.95¢
Casper Ruud
0.05¢
Rafael Jodar
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets3Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:152 trades$188.5K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 30 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Rafael Jodar · $1.6K net·14 wallets·$60.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLCasper Ruud$21.9K@ 100¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Rafael Jodar pressure: $22.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$22.2K
6h
−$19.9K
tracked
$188.5K

14 verified profitable wallets: Rafael Jodar · $1.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 6 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 30 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Rafael Jodar or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-10 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Casper Ruud and Rafael Jodar in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 at 2:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Casper Ruud' if Casper Ruud advances against Rafael Jodar. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against Casper Ruud. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh2 linked markets · $3.5K gross
Gasplant2 linked markets · $63 gross
yeagerist2 linked markets · $56 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Rafael Jodar DOWN 16.0pp · near-book depth $155 → $196 · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Casper Ruud; negative values favor Rafael Jodar. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRafael Jodar · $22.2K
6hRafael Jodar · $19.9K
24hRafael Jodar · $19.9K

Casper Ruud price VWAP

Volume-weighted Casper Ruud price. Rafael Jodar fills are converted to the complementary Casper Ruud probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.95¢
VWAP 24h66.07¢▲ above by 33.9pp
VWAP 7d66.07¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Casper Ruud price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$30.5K
90¢
$28.2K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$2.1K
65¢
$29.6K
60¢
$9.2K
55¢
$14.5K
50¢
$11.2K
45¢
$25.0K
40¢
$8.6K
35¢
$29.4K
30¢
$30
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLCasper Ruud$21.9K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—30 minutes ago
BUYCasper Ruud$14.3K@ 93.0¢
9995850x88a6…7e77
🐋—41 minutes ago
BUYCasper Ruud$11.1K@ 50.76¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 2 Winner: Casper Ruud vs Rafael Jodar
99.95¢$13.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ruud vs. Jodar: Match O/U 22.5
—$3.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ruud vs. Jodar: Match O/U 21.5
—$1.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Casper Ruud vs. Rafael Jodar: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$466priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Rafael Jodar (-2.5) vs Casper Ruud (+2.5)
—$241priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ruud vs. Jodar: Match O/U 23.5
—$11priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ruud vs. Jodar: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ruud vs. Jodar: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

dmoralezCasper Ruud$15.1K
BUY VWAP 63.82¢·12 fills
999585Casper Ruud$14.3K
BUY VWAP 93.0¢·1 fill
kkookkooCasper Ruud$11.1K
BUY VWAP 50.76¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.