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Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev

● quote 75 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $572.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $768.2KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev

Indicative prices · 75 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Ignacio Buse
16.0¢
Daniil Medvedev
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets2Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:242 trades$316.5K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 77 min agoofficial metadata 73 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Daniil Medvedev · $1.0K net·14 wallets(1🐋)·$61.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDaniil Medvedev$15.2K@ 65¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$135.4K
tracked
$316.5K

14 verified profitable wallets: Daniil Medvedev · $1.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +49.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 75 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 77 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 73 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-11 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Ignacio Buse and Daniil Medvedev in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ignacio Buse' if Ignacio Buse advances against Daniil Medvedev. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Ignacio Buse. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Ignacio Buse@ 51.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Daniil Medvedev@ 83.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Ignacio Buse UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $52.5K → $18 · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Ignacio Buse; negative values favor Daniil Medvedev. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hIgnacio Buse · $0
6hDaniil Medvedev · $135.4K
24hDaniil Medvedev · $135.3K

Ignacio Buse price VWAP

Volume-weighted Ignacio Buse price. Daniil Medvedev fills are converted to the complementary Ignacio Buse probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h48.16¢▲ above by 51.7pp
VWAP 7d48.16¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Ignacio Buse price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$49.5K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$5.5K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$31.7K
50¢
$26.7K
45¢
$49.0K
40¢
$43.9K
35¢
$15.9K
30¢
$0
25¢
$27.0K
20¢
$33.7K
15¢
$29.3K
10¢
$4.3K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLIgnacio Buse$10.0K@ 99.9¢
Kunkun1110xcb56…ebd9
🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLIgnacio Buse$13.4K@ 99.9¢0x54ba…04e4🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$15.2K@ 65.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$10.9K@ 78.0¢
ShuffleReverse0xce21…7d65
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$14.1K@ 59.0¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 2 Winner: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev
—$6.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Daniil Medvedev (-5.5) vs Ignacio Buse (+5.5)
—$486priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Buse vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5
—$90priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ignacio Buse vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$32priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Buse vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Buse vs. Medvedev: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Buse vs. Medvedev: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Buse vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

MadridTimeDaniil Medvedev$19.2K
BUY VWAP 62.03¢·4 fills
prabamDaniil Medvedev$16.6K
BUY VWAP 83.0¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Daniil Medvedev$15.2K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill
kkookkooDaniil Medvedev$14.1K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·1 fill
redvinnyIgnacio Buse$12.5K
BUY VWAP 47.36¢·8 fills
ShuffleReverseDaniil Medvedev$10.9K
BUY VWAP 78.0¢·1 fill
LightParadoxDaniil Medvedev$10.8K
BUY VWAP 79.03¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.