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UMass vs. Toledo

● quote 364 min ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 23 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $6.5KEvent: UMass vs. Toledo

Indicative prices · 364 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

15.5¢
UMass
84.5¢
Toledo
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%
24h sample:2 trades$4.3K trackedsource coverage 66%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 466 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYToledo$4.3K@ 86¢·notthemnoway11

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$4.3K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 364 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 466 minutes old.
  • •Less than 23h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-12 00:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "UMass" if UMass win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Toledo" if Toledo win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between UMass and Toledo, originally scheduled for Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "UMass" if UMass win the game. This market will resolve to "Toledo" if Toledo win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Friday, November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor UMass; negative values favor Toledo. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUMass · $0
6hUMass · $0
24hToledo · $4.3K

UMass price VWAP

Volume-weighted UMass price. Toledo fills are converted to the complementary UMass probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current15.5¢
VWAP 24h14.48¢▲ above by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d14.48¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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UMass price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
← now
$9
10¢
$4.3K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Toledo (-13.5)
—$200priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Toledo (-14.5)
—$50priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: UMass (-16.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Toledo (-8.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: UMass (-3.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Toledo (-34.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Toledo (-19.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
UMass vs. Toledo: O/U 35.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.