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Spread: Memphis (-2.5)

● quote 19s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: 9 minutesLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $27.8KEvent: Memphis vs. South Florida

Indicative prices · 19s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

62.5¢
Memphis
37.5¢
South Florida
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 80%
24h sample:3 trades$17.2K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 62%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 14 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMemphis$15.6K@ 61¢·lightotunnel35

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Memphis pressure: $1.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.3K
6h
+$1.3K
tracked
$17.2K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 80% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 14 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Memphis or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-13 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Memphis" if Memphis win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "South Florida".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between Memphis and South Florida, originally scheduled for Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Memphis" if Memphis win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "South Florida". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
lightotunnel352 linked markets · $20.2K gross
0xb4f9…c9a72 linked markets · $16.7K gross
alwaysfade5 linked markets · $14.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Memphis@ 61.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Memphis; negative values favor South Florida. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMemphis · $1.3K
6hMemphis · $1.3K
24hMemphis · $17.2K

Memphis price VWAP

Volume-weighted Memphis price. South Florida fills are converted to the complementary Memphis probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current62.5¢
VWAP 24h61.06¢▲ above by 1.4pp
VWAP 7d61.06¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Memphis price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
← now
$17.2K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMemphis$15.6K@ 61.0¢
lightotunnel350xeecc…8392
🐋—about 6 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Memphis (-3.5)
54.5¢$56.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Memphis vs. South Florida
64.5¢$51.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Memphis vs. South Florida: O/U 49.5
54.5¢$44.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Memphis (-4.5)
50.5¢$15.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Memphis (-5.5)
47.5¢$9.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Memphis vs. South Florida: O/U 51.5
46.5¢$569priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Memphis (-1.5)
62.5¢$510priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Memphis (-14.5)
23.0¢$472priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

lightotunnel35Memphis$15.6K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.