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Spread: Indiana (-8.5)

● quote 29s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $46.6KEvent: USC vs. Indiana

Indicative prices · 29s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

52.5¢
Indiana
47.5¢
USC
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets43Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:9 trades$21.3K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 21 min agoofficial metadata 10 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:USC · $8.5K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$19.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUSC$14.1K@ 47¢·keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$827
6h
−$14.9K
tracked
$21.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: USC · $8.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 21 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-14 20:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Indiana" if Indiana win the game by 9 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "USC".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between USC and Indiana, originally scheduled for Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Indiana" if Indiana win the game by 9 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "USC". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Monday, November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard3 linked markets · $13.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Indiana; negative values favor USC. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUSC · $827
6hUSC · $14.9K
24hUSC · $15.0K

Indiana price VWAP

Volume-weighted Indiana price. USC fills are converted to the complementary Indiana probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.5¢
VWAP 24h52.65¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d52.39¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Indiana price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$26.6K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUSC$14.1K@ 47.03¢
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh0x0d6a…aa98
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

USC vs. Indiana: O/U 49.5
56.5¢$8.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Indiana (-7.5)
—$2.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
USC vs. Indiana
—$1.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Indiana (-6.5)
—$16priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
USC vs. Indiana: O/U 53.5
—$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Indiana (-9.5)
—$0priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: USC (-3.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: USC (-17.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

keeptheblueflagflyinghighUSC$14.1K
BUY VWAP 47.03¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.