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Spread: Michigan State (-16.5)

Sports→American FootballCloses: about 16 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $4.3KEvent: Washington vs. Michigan State

Polymarket indicative prices · 11 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

8.5¢
Michigan State
91.5¢
Washington
—
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%
24h sample:1 trades$101 trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 295 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$101
tracked
$101

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 295 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-14 22:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Michigan State" if Michigan State win the game by 17 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Washington".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between Washington and Michigan State, originally scheduled for Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 4:15 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Michigan State" if Michigan State win the game by 17 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Washington". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Monday, November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 26m ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $3.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Michigan State; negative values favor Washington. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMichigan State · $0
6hMichigan State · $101
24hMichigan State · $101

Michigan State price VWAP

Volume-weighted Michigan State price. Washington fills are converted to the complementary Michigan State probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current8.5¢
VWAP 24h10.0¢▼ below by 1.5pp
VWAP 7d10.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Michigan State price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$101
5¢
← now
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Washington (-3.5)
—$2.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Washington vs. Michigan State
—$1.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Michigan State (-17.5)
—$1.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Washington (-1.5)
—$1.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Washington vs. Michigan State: O/U 65.5
—$1.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Washington (-16.5)
—$838priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Washington (-4.5)
—$600priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Michigan State (-10.5)
—$263priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.