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Spread: New Mexico (-17.5)

Sports→American FootballCloses: about 9 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $13.1KEvent: UNLV vs. New Mexico

Polymarket indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

49.5¢
New Mexico
50.5¢
UNLV
—
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2 trades$4.2K trackedsource coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 22 min agoofficial metadata just now
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNew Mexico$2.4K@ 49¢·Venusian

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

New Mexico pressure: $4.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$4.2K
6h
+$4.2K
tracked
$4.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: New Mexico · $2.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 22 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from New Mexico or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-15 00:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "New Mexico" if New Mexico win the game by 18 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "UNLV".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between UNLV and New Mexico, originally scheduled for Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "New Mexico" if New Mexico win the game by 18 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "UNLV". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Monday, November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor New Mexico; negative values favor UNLV. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNew Mexico · $4.2K
6hNew Mexico · $4.2K
24hNew Mexico · $4.2K

New Mexico price VWAP

Volume-weighted New Mexico price. UNLV fills are converted to the complementary New Mexico probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h48.58¢▲ above by 0.9pp
VWAP 7d48.58¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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New Mexico price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$4.2K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: New Mexico (-16.5)
54.5¢$13.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
UNLV vs. New Mexico: O/U 45.5
—$3.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: New Mexico (-14.5)
—$344priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
UNLV vs. New Mexico
—$18priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: UNLV (-20.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
UNLV vs. New Mexico: O/U 67.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: UNLV (-6.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: UNLV (-14.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.