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Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $102.3KEvent: Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

53.5¢
Natus Vincere
46.5¢
B8
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets15Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority42Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:22 trades$45.6K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Natus Vincere · $2.0K net·2 wallets·$9.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNatus Vincere$13.3K@ 53¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Natus Vincere pressure: $4.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$4.3K
6h
+$10.2K
tracked
$45.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: Natus Vincere · $2.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 42

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Natus Vincere or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-04 10:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere wins 2 or more maps than B8 in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "B8".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower Bracket Semifinal 1 match between Natus Vincere and B8 in the IEM Beijing Group A, initially scheduled for November 3, 2026 at 11:30 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere wins 2 or more maps than B8 in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "B8". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 17, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of November 3, 2026 at 11:30 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining maps required to decide the match, including a map in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
nobody2somebody2 linked markets · $6.0K gross
0xc9bf…81c03 linked markets · $4.9K gross
0xe907…cff62 linked markets · $1.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Natus Vincere; negative values favor B8. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNatus Vincere · $4.3K
6hNatus Vincere · $10.2K
24hNatus Vincere · $10.7K

Natus Vincere price VWAP

Volume-weighted Natus Vincere price. B8 fills are converted to the complementary Natus Vincere probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current53.5¢
VWAP 24h52.67¢▲ above by 0.8pp
VWAP 7d52.67¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Natus Vincere price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$45.6K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYB8$12.8K@ 48.0¢
FeedTheBigBird0x84ec…72c1
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYNatus Vincere$13.3K@ 53.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 5 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A
79.5¢$59.1Kpriority61Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 - Map 1 Winner
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111Natus Vincere$13.3K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill
FeedTheBigBirdB8$12.8K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.