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Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker

● quote 157 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $63.8KEvent: Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker

Indicative prices · 157 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.5¢
Federico Aguilar
99.9¢
Nicolas Kicker
—
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets97Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:28 trades$9.3K trackedsource coverage 15%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 202 min agoofficial metadata 164 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Nicolas Kicker · $2.9K net·3 wallets·$3.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFederico Aguilar$2.3K@ 24¢·dv-pm

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$2.0K
tracked
$9.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: Nicolas Kicker · $2.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 157 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 202 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-11 13:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Federico Aguilar and Nicolas Kicker in the Villa Maria, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Federico Aguilar' if Federico Aguilar advances against Nicolas Kicker. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Kicker' if Nicolas Kicker advances against Federico Aguilar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
RISE12 linked markets · $8.8K gross
Beasts2 linked markets · $2.2K gross
0x8f97…cd522 linked markets · $145 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Federico Aguilar UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $7.1K → $6.1K · 86s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Federico Aguilar; negative values favor Nicolas Kicker. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFederico Aguilar · $0
6hNicolas Kicker · $2.0K
24hNicolas Kicker · $2.6K

Federico Aguilar price VWAP

Volume-weighted Federico Aguilar price. Nicolas Kicker fills are converted to the complementary Federico Aguilar probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.5¢
VWAP 24h26.92¢▼ below by 26.4pp
VWAP 7d26.92¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Federico Aguilar price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$145
40¢
$3.1K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$711
20¢
$3.2K
15¢
$8
10¢
$5
5¢
$2.1K
0¢
← now
$10

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Federico Aguilar vs. Nicolas Kicker: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$399priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Nicolas Kicker (-5.5) vs Federico Aguilar (+5.5)
—$198priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Nicolas Kicker (-1.5) vs Federico Aguilar (+1.5)
—$192priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Aguilar vs. Kicker: Match O/U 23.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Aguilar vs. Kicker: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Aguilar vs. Kicker: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Aguilar vs. Kicker: Match O/U 22.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.